A Milestone Not Seen in Over Two Decades

Four countries hoping to join the European Union took important steps forward on their membership quests on Tuesday, July 14, in one of the bloc’s biggest enlargement moves in more than 20 years. The event drew an immediate comparison to American political tradition. “This is a Super Tuesday for EU enlargement and Ukraine is part of it,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told reporters, referencing the last time this many candidates advanced simultaneously — back in 2002.

Intergovernmental conferences were held in Brussels to ceremonially open or close negotiating tracks for the top four candidates to join the 27-nation EU: Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, and war-ravaged Ukraine. The talks represent a significant symbolic and procedural push for a bloc that has spent years debating whether — and how fast — to grow. Croatia was the last country to be welcomed into the world’s biggest trading bloc, joining in 2013.

What Each Country Actually Accomplished

The four nations didn’t all take the same steps — the process is nuanced and country-specific. Last month, Ukraine and Moldova had opened negotiations on a cluster of five chapters linked to the values and principles on which the EU was founded, such as the rule of law and respect for fundamental rights. On July 14, they each opened a second cluster focused on foreign relations, security and defense policies, as well as trade policy, development cooperation, and humanitarian aid.

Albania’s conference served to provisionally close negotiating tracks on science and research, education and culture, and external relations. Montenegro — which hopes to join in 2028 — did the same with competition policy and customs rules. To put the scale of the challenge in perspective, countries must negotiate 35 policy chapters grouped into six clusters and win approval from every single current EU member state before they can join.

Why Europe Is Moving Faster Now

The July 14 move is a sign of important political and geostrategic changes happening in Europe. In 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that he would block any attempt at enlargement until the EU itself had undergone deep reforms. But Europe’s biggest land war in decades and its fallout have altered that calculus. The EU has sought to encourage reform in the candidate nations, fearing the growing influence of Russia and China.

An important factor that has led to the EU’s newfound speed is a change of government in Hungary. Ukraine’s accession process was long stymied by Hungary’s stridently nationalist former prime minister Viktor Orbán, who was considered Russia’s strongest ally in Europe and a possible threat to the EU project. With that political obstacle removed, Brussels has been able to move with a pace that would have seemed impossible just a year or two ago.

Ukraine’s Unique and Urgent Case

Ukraine’s progress has been impressive — it only applied for membership in 2022, four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Ukraine sees EU membership as one “security guarantee” for a stable future once the war ends. Its best guarantee would be NATO membership, but the Trump administration insists that cannot happen, and other NATO members are wary of it joining while fighting continues.

European countries see the war as an existential threat, and fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin could target them in coming years, especially if he wins in Ukraine. Commissioner Kos made the stakes plain: “The future security architecture of our continent is unimaginable without Ukraine,” she said, adding that “Ukrainians have turned their country into a military powerhouse with capabilities few other nations can match, especially with its rapidly evolving drone technologies.” Nine countries are now officially candidates to join the EU: Albania, Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Turkey — and with Tuesday’s milestone, the map of Europe may look very different within the next decade.